*UPDATED*
My previous draw analysis has gone to pot now that Rafael Nadal is out of Wimbledon. The big change is that 5th seeded Juan Martin del Potro will move out of the bottom half of the draw, where he was in Djokovic’s section, and take Rafa’s place up top. Is Juan Martin feeling cheery?
Del Potro’s old spot will be taken by 17th seed James Blake with Nicolas Kiefer moving in to fill Blake’s slot.
So do you think this changes anything?
SUMMARY:
Top Half: Del Potro and Andy Murray are seeded to meet in the semis unless Andy Roddick can make it Andy vs. Andy in the semifinals. That would take some minds off of Nadal’s withdrawal. And I hate to say it, but everyone from Hewitt to Stepanek must be walking with a little more spring in their steps after looking at the new draw today.
Bottom Half: Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are the seeded semfinalists with big hitters like Verdasco, Soderling, Cilic, Haas, Blake, and Tsonga circling.
With Juan Martin del Potro out of his section, Federer’s draw got a little less terrifying for me. But there are a number of talented, big-hitting shotmakers to deal with before he even gets to Nole.
BREAK DOWN
Top Quarter: Juan Martin del Poto vs. Andy Roddick
Juan Martin del Potro gets last year’s quarterfinalist, Arnaud Clement, is his first round match, with the winner of Lleyton Hewitt vs. Robby Ginepri (remember him?) waiting in the second. Stepanek and Ferrer are possible Rd. of 16 opponents.
I think Andy Roddick has the toughest early round draw of the top seeds, with Jeremy Chardy in the first round and last year’s Wimbledon juniors champ (and much-hyped Future Fed), Grigor Dimitrov in the second. Davydenko, Mathieu and Berdych are tough prospects for his Rd. of 16.
Second Quarter: Andy Murray vs. Gilles Simon (yeah, right)
Murray has a toughish section with big serving Robert Kendrick in the first round and a (slumping) Ernests Gulbis in the second. He could meet American S&V throwback, Taylor Dent, in the third round and either Safin or Wawrinka in the 16s.
Gilles Simon’s melting confidence makes the other half of this section wide open. Fernando Gonzalez, who beat Murray in Paris, could be the toughest quarterfinal prospect for the Scot. Mikhail Youzhny and Juan Carlos Ferrero, who will meet in the first round, are the jet black darkhorses in the section.
Third Quarter: Marin Cilic vs. Novak Djokovic
With JMdP out, Marin Cilic becomes the top seeded player in the top half of Novak’s section. Besides Cilic, Queen’s Club finalist James Blake and Tommy Haas – who just beat Djokovic in the finals of Halle – are the Serb’s biggest threats for the quarters.
Djokovic has Julien Benneteau in the first round and guys like Tipsarevic and Fish later on. Tommy Robredo is seeded for to play him in the Rd. of 16. Unless the Tennis Gods are still fooling with us, Novak should make it deep into the second week.
Fourth Quarter: Roger Federer vs. Fernando Verdasco (or Karlovic or Tsonga)
Verdasco should be safe for the first few rounds – he has a British newbie James Ward in the first round and the winner of Mahut vs. Vliegen in the second. Things will get interesting in the Round of 16 if he meets Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or the dreaded Ivo Karlovic. As an undocumented Canadian citizen, I’ll put in a good word for Frank Dancevic, who’s into the Eastbourne finals this weekend.
Federer starts with Yen-Hsun Lu of Taipei, with Philipp Kohlshreiber a possibility in the 3rd round and monster-servers Feliciano Lopez or Robin Soderling in the Round of 16. Fingers crossed.
Which gentlemen is winning Wimbledon?
- Roger Federer (70%, 1,634 Votes)
- Andy Murray (11%, 250 Votes)
- Andy Roddick (10%, 222 Votes)
- Novak Djokovic (4%, 101 Votes)
- Somebody else! (2%, 35 Votes)
- Juan Martin del Potro (1%, 28 Votes)
- Tommy Haas (1%, 19 Votes)
- Robin Soderling (1%, 14 Votes)
- Fernando Verdasco (0%, 10 Votes)
- Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (0%, 9 Votes)
Total Voters: 2,330
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